G7 https://launchandscalefaster.org/ en The G7 underwhelms, with numbers that don’t add up https://launchandscalefaster.org/blog/g7-underwhelms-numbers-dont-add <span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">The G7 underwhelms, with numbers that don’t add up</span> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><span lang="" about="/user/9" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">elina.urli.hodges</span></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden">Fri, 06/18/2021 - 19:45</span> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><h2><span><span><span><span>INSIGHTS</span></span></span></span></h2> <p><span><span><span><strong><em><span><span>The G7 underwhelms, with numbers that don’t add up </span></span></em></strong></span></span></span></p> <p>Author: Andrea Taylor</p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>The G7 began their much-anticipated summit last week with a target to reach 1 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccine in pledged donations for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The result could be described as underwhelming (as well as unclear). </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>To be fair, the US set a high bar early in the week, with a plan to donate 500 million Pfizer-BioNTech doses (</span></span></span><a href="https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-500-million-doses-covid-19"><span><span>working “with,” but not necessarily through, COVAX</span></span></a><span><span><span>). It was going to be hard for any other G7 member to make a splash in the wake of that announcement. But despite starting already halfway to the 1 billion dose target, the G7 essentially stalled out without leveraging the momentum from the US:Pfizer agreement. </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>According to the post-summit communique, the G7 pulled together commitments for </span></span></span><a href="https://www.g7uk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Carbis-Bay-G7-Summit-Communique-PDF-430KB-25-pages-3.pdf"><span><span>870 million donated doses</span></span></a><span><span><span>. They then added in donation pledges made earlier in the year to push the total over the 1 billion dose target. Of the 870 million doses, G7 leaders “aim to deliver” half of those in 2021. </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>The dose donation pledges from the G7 summit, however, were not straightforward. <strong>Details are scarce and several of the commitments </strong></span></span></span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/g7s-billion-vaccine-plan-counts-some-past-pledges-limiting-impact-2021-06-13/"><strong><span><span>appear to be recycled</span></span></strong></a><span><span><span>, rather than representing additional supply. For example, France and Germany each announced donations of 30 million doses coming out of the G20 summit in May but these totals appear to be included in the G7’s 870 million. </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>Our search for clear indications of new commitments turned up only a total of 648 million doses (US 500M, UK 100M, Canada </span></span></span><a href="https://globalnews.ca/news/7945662/canada-covid-vaccine-sharing/"><span><span>13M</span></span></a><span><span><span>, France </span></span></span><a href="https://www.france24.com/en/diplomacy/20210613-live-uk-s-boris-johnson-officially-wraps-up-g7-talks"><span><span>5M</span></span></a><span><span><span>, Japan </span></span></span><a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/COVID-vaccines/Japan-commits-another-800m-to-COVAX-vaccine-program"><span><span>30M</span></span></a><span><span><span>). It is unclear if France, Germany, and Italy made pledges in addition to the commitment they have already made </span></span></span><a href="https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-vaccine-coronavirus-pandemic-health-8e166b01415dc522efa1252d155afaae"><span><span>through the EU bloc</span></span></a><span><span><span> (for a combined total of 100 million doses in 2021), aside from 5 million mentioned by the French president. Or perhaps the 870 million includes “</span></span></span><a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/06/13/fact-sheet-united-states-and-g7-partners-will-provide-more-than-2-billion-vaccines-for-the-world/"><span><span>dose equivalents</span></span></a><span><span><span>” in funding for COVAX. Without transparency, it is difficult to parse how the G7 leaders arrived at the 870 million figure and, perhaps more importantly, impossible to hold them to account.  </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>The </span></span></span><a href="https://www.g7uk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Carbis-Bay-G7-Summit-Communique-PDF-430KB-25-pages-3.pdf"><span><span>post-summit communique</span></span></a><span><span><span> also notes, with a self-congratulatory tone, that G7 countries will export 700 million (presumably purchased) vaccine doses in 2021, with “almost half” going to non-G7 countries. So it appears that the rest of the world, still waiting for delivery of the vaccine they’ve ordered, can expect the wealthiest countries to ship out 350 million doses in 2021. Is this the best we can do?</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><strong><span><span><span>What the world needs now</span></span></span></strong></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>It looks likely that LMICS will reach 20% coverage by the end of 2021 and that there will be sufficient doses produced to meet global demand by the end of 2022. But due to distribution, delivery, and demand challenges, we project that it will be well into 2023 before all countries have received and distributed vaccines to more than 60% of their populations. </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>The gaps in vaccine access have been widening, rather than shrinking, over the past few months. This is in part due to the export restrictions from India, which devastated COVAX 2021 supply. But it is also due to the rapid rates of vaccination in high-income countries, as several are extending vaccination to adolescents and teenagers, while countries across Africa are still waiting for doses to cover their healthcare workers. </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>As the US, EU, and UK begin to meet domestic demand over the next few months, we expect to see significant increases in exports and vaccine donations from these countries. This will help to make up for some of the COVAX supply shortfall and will help LMICs make a dent in vaccinating their priority populations. </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span><span>But a vague promise of 870 million doses is not enough and this lackluster response will allow space and time for new variants to emerge. Immediate delivery of vaccine doses is needed to curb a crisis in countries in Latin America, Africa, and many parts of Asia. This must include donations but also expedited delivery of the purchases these countries have made. </span></span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><em><span><span><span>Note: As donations will become an increasingly important part of reaching vaccine equity, we are building out new data and visualizations on vaccine donations, which we hope to launch next week. </span></span></span></em></span></span></p> <blockquote> <h2><span><span><span><span>INTERESTING TRENDS</span></span></span></span></h2> <p><span><span><span><span>Significant updates, news, and trends we saw last week:</span></span></span></span></p> <ul> <li><span><span><span><span>We removed a deal in our vaccine procurement data this week for </span></span><strong><span><span>Taiwan</span></span></strong><span><span> of </span></span><strong><span><span>Pfizer-BioNTech</span></span></strong><span><span> vaccine, which </span></span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-says-request-drop-word-country-preceded-biontech-vaccine-deal-collapse-2021-05-27/"><span><span>fell through earlier this year</span></span></a><span><span>. Thanks to the user of our website who alerted us to this change. Please do help us keep this data accurate and up-to-date and get in touch to let us know how you are using the data.</span></span></span></span></li> <li><span><span><span><span>It was a great week for </span></span><strong><span><span>Novavax</span></span></strong><span><span>, which </span></span><a href="https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-90-overall-efficacy-and"><span><span>released positive findings</span></span></a><span><span> from the Phase 3 trial of their Covid-19 protein subunit vaccine, with 90.4% efficacy overall. </span></span></span></span></li> <li><span><span><strong><span><span>Curevac</span></span></strong><span><span> had a worse week, reporting </span></span><a href="https://www.curevac.com/en/2021/06/16/curevac-provides-update-on-phase-2b-3-trial-of-first-generation-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-cvncov/"><span><span>disappointing interim results</span></span></a><span><span> from the Phase 2/3 trial of their Covid-19 mRNA vaccine, with 47% efficacy. </span></span></span></span></li> <li><span><span><span><span>Hundreds of healthcare workers in </span></span><strong><span><span>Indonesia</span></span></strong><span><span>, vaccinated with </span></span><strong><span><span>Sinovac</span></span></strong><span><span>, have </span></span><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/06/17/chinas-sinovac-vaccine-under-scrutiny-as-covid-soars-in-highly-vaccinated-countries/"><span><span>contracted Covid-19</span></span></a><span><span>, and dozens of them have been hospitalized, raising concerns about the vaccine’s efficacy as the country reported its highest rate of infections in five months. </span></span></span></span></li> <li><span><span><span><span>Wealthy countries, with plenty of vaccine and not enough takers, are getting </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/netherlands-offers-free-pickled-herring-as-covid-jab-incentive"><span><span>creative with incentives</span></span></a><span><span> for getting vaccinated. Washington State (in the </span></span><strong><span><span>US</span></span></strong><span><span>) is offering marijuana joints, while the </span></span><strong><span><span>Netherlands</span></span></strong><span><span> is offering herring. </span></span></span></span></li> <li><span><span><span><span>The </span></span><strong><span><span>US</span></span></strong><span><span> FDA this week approved a batch of </span></span><a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-authorizes-additional-batch-johnson-johnsons-covid-19-vaccine-2021-06-15/"><span><span>approximately 14 million doses</span></span></a><span><span> of </span></span><strong><span><span>Janssen (J&amp;J)</span></span></strong><span><span> vaccine produced at the Emergent plant in Baltimore after approving </span></span><a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/ap-source-jj-doses-released-tossed-78222006"><span><span>10 million doses</span></span></a><span><span> last week. However, </span></span><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/us/politics/covid-vaccine-emergent-johnson-johnson.html"><span><span>another 60 million doses</span></span></a><span><span> must be thrown away (in addition to the 15 million doses that were discarded earlier this year). The FDA is still assessing millions more doses of both Oxford-AstraZeneca and J&amp;J produced at Emergent. </span></span></span></span></li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><span><span><strong>For more information on our research on Covid-19 vaccine supply, please see </strong><a href="https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19"><strong>https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19</strong></a><strong>.</strong></span></span></p> <p> </p></div> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-image field--type-image field--label-hidden field__item"> <img src="/sites/default/files/2021-06/QuestionMark_0.jpg" width="2886" height="1747" alt="Question mark" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /> </div> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-field-blog-subtitle field--type-text field--label-hidden field__item">Weekly COVID Vaccine Research Update</div> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/taxonomy/term/g7" hreflang="en">G7</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/taxonomy/term/covid" hreflang="en">COVID</a></div> </div> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-field-callout field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><table> <tbody> <tr> <td>High-income country confirmed dose total:</td> <td>6 billion</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Upper-middle-income country total:</td> <td>2.2 billion</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lower-middle-income country total:</td> <td>1.8 billion</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Low-income country total:</td> <td>271 million</td> </tr> <tr> <td>COVAX total:</td> <td>2.4 billion</td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot> <tr> <td>Total worldwide confirmed purchases of Covid-19 vaccines:</td> <td> <p>12.7 billion doses</p> </td> </tr> </tfoot> </table></div> Fri, 18 Jun 2021 19:45:07 +0000 elina.urli.hodges 63 at https://launchandscalefaster.org Rhetoric first, action later: the G7 approach to global equity https://launchandscalefaster.org/blog/rhetoric-first-action-later-g7-approach-global-equity <span class="field field--name-title field--type-string field--label-hidden">Rhetoric first, action later: the G7 approach to global equity</span> <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><span lang="" about="/user/37" typeof="schema:Person" property="schema:name" datatype="">j.harris</span></span> <span class="field field--name-created field--type-created field--label-hidden">Mon, 02/22/2021 - 22:46</span> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><h2>Weekly Insights and Interesting Trends</h2> <p><em>Rhetoric first, action later: the G7 approach to global equity</em></p> <p><span><span><span><span>The G7 countries met (virtually) on Friday, February 19, </span></span><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56117120"><span><span>to</span></span></a> <a href="https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1362763971149897729"><span><span>share</span></span></a> <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-politics-g7-merkel-idUSKBN2AJ1WG"><span><span>variants</span></span></a><span><span> of “no one is safe until everyone is safe” and </span></span><a href="https://www.g7uk.org/prime-minister-to-host-virtual-meeting-of-g7-leaders/"><span><span>discuss</span></span></a><span><span> the importance of global equity of Covid-19 vaccines and the need for international cooperation. (Sound familiar? That’s because we heard </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/22/g20-leaders-pledge-to-spare-no-effort-to-distribute-covid-vaccines-fairly"><span><span>the same things</span></span></a><span><span> from the G20 in November.)  </span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span>The countries together pledged another $7.5 billion in funding for COVAX (including the $4 billion that the US Congress set aside for COVAX in December’s Covid relief bill). Funding, while important, is unlikely to improve the immediate picture for global equity as manufacturers churn out millions of doses </span></span><a href="https://www.vox.com/2021/1/29/22253908/rich-countries-hoarding-covid-19-vaccines"><span><span>heading</span></span></a><span><span> for the same wealthy countries. </span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span>Low- and middle-income countries need doses now. As even wealthy countries are learning, purchases on paper are not the same as doses in hand. (</span></span><a href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-vaccine-update-feb-18-1.5918175"><span><span>Canada</span></span></a><span><span>, which purchased more doses per capita than any other country, has received very little and is behind most other rich nations in its vaccine roll-out.) </span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span>And COVAX, while important, does not solve for equity at 20% coverage. Even with COVAX, poor countries still need to purchase supply for 40% to 50% of their population in order to reach herd immunity levels. But low- and middle-income countries making purchases now will have to wait in the queue to receive delivery, while manufacturing slots for much of 2021 are already reserved. </span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span>French President Emmanuel Macron joined Norway in </span></span><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56121062"><span><span>calling</span></span></a><span><span> for rich countries, which have purchased far more than they need (see table below), to donate doses now, as they are still vaccinating their priority populations. Asking countries to pledge 5% of their supply immediately, Macron made the point that <strong>it is speed that counts</strong>. Seeming to miss this entirely, UK leadership suggested they would likely donate a much more generous amount but that it was “</span></span><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56117120"><span><span>difficult to say</span></span></a><span><span>” when. The US and Canada, as well as EU leadership, have similarly committed to donations in principle but </span></span><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/02/18/5-percent-vaccine-donations-france/"><span><span>hedged</span></span></a><span><span> on timing.</span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span>This appears to run counter to leaders’ oft repeated belief that “no one is safe until everyone is safe.” Because of manufacturing limitations, the fastest way to ensure that countries are able to move together to vaccinate their priority populations is for rich countries to send a portion of doses as they receive them. </span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span>The G7 countries (including the EU) have already purchased enough vaccine to cover more than 2 billion people. Even after vaccinating 100% of their populations, they would still have <strong>enough vaccine left to cover a combined 1.2 billion people</strong>. </span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><span><span>Rich countries have </span></span><a href="https://slate.com/technology/2021/02/us-covid-vaccines-covax-global-south.html"><span><span>tied up the bulk</span></span></a><span><span> of the supply for this year. If these countries wait to share until after their adult populations have been covered and until after they know whether or not boosters will be needed, as the UK has suggested it will do, global inequities will grow. Meanwhile, while rich countries dither, </span></span><a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-are-becoming-important-diplomatic-currency-11613152854?page=1"><span><span>China and India</span></span></a><span><span> have </span></span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/19/coronavirus-vaccine-diplomacy-west-falling-behind-russia-china-race-influence"><span><span>moved quickly</span></span></a><span><span> to donate millions of doses to poor countries even while both countries face shortages for domestic supply. </span></span></span></span></p> <p><span><span><em><span><span>Vaccine purchases by G7 countries (including EU)</span></span></em></span></span></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>Country</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>People covered by vaccine purchased</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>% population covered</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>Surplus (in people covered)</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>Canada</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>190,000,000</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>505%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>152,410,738</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>EU</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>1,017,500,000</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>227%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>569,987,959</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>Japan</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span><span>157,000,000</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>124%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>30,735,069</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>UK</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>243,500,000</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>364%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>176,665,595</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>USA</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>655,000,000</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>200%</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>326,760,477</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>TOTAL</span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td> <p> </p> </td> <td> <p> </p> </td> <td> <p><span><span><span><span>1,256,559,838</span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span><span><span><span>Note: Data accurate as of February 19, 2021. Purchase data includes only finalized purchases and does not include optioned doses. </span></span></span></span></p> <blockquote> <h2>Interesting Trends</h2> Significant updates, news, and trends we saw last week: <ul> <li>The G7 countries increased their financial support to COVAX, while remaining non-committal on the timing for donations of actual doses (our take below). </li> <li>Novavax and SII have signed an MOU with Gavi to supply 1.1 billion doses of the Novavax vaccine to COVAX, though delivery schedule is not provided.</li> <li>Vaccine scandals in Argentina and Peru prompted the resignation of government officials, who were found to have jumped the queue for vaccinations, in some cases receiving shots before national immunization programs had even begun.</li> <li>Gavi announced a global no-fault compensation program for the 92 COVAX-funded countries, offering lump sum compensation in the case of vaccine injury. Russia has offered 300 million doses of Sputnik V to the African Union, which if taken up by African countries, would bring the AU total to 970 million purchased doses.</li> <li>South Africa will share its now-unwanted SII Oxford-AstraZeneca doses with the African Union, though it is unclear if this will be a donation, trade, or other arrangement.</li> <li>CEO of the Serum Institute of India noted in a tweet that SII has been directed to prioritize India’s domestic supply needs with manufacture of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.</li> <li>Bharat Biotech has filed for approval of their Covid-19 vaccine in more than 40 countries. The vaccine has been widely rolled out in India, though Phase III clinical data is not expected until March at the earliest.</li> <li>Russia approved its third Covid-19 vaccine, CoviVac, this week before large-scale trials have even begun.</li> <li>New data submitted for FDA review suggest that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine may remain stable when stored at standard freezer temperatures. • Oxford University is testing the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine in children aged 6 to 17.</li> <li>Pfizer-BioNTech announced that it is working on a booster to address new variants, following similar announcements from Moderna and Oxford-AstraZeneca.</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><strong>For more information on our research on Covid-19 vaccine supply, please see <a href="https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19">https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19</a>.</strong></p></div> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-image field--type-image field--label-hidden field__item"> <img src="/sites/default/files/2021-02/globe.png" width="1950" height="1567" alt="Globe w/ mask" loading="lazy" typeof="foaf:Image" /> </div> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-field-blog-subtitle field--type-text field--label-hidden field__item">Weekly COVID Vaccine Research Update</div> <div class="field field--name-field-blog-tags field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden field__items"> <div class="field__item"><a href="/taxonomy/term/covid" hreflang="en">COVID</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/taxonomy/term/vaccines" hreflang="en">Vaccines</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/taxonomy/term/procurement" hreflang="en">Procurement</a></div> <div class="field__item"><a href="/taxonomy/term/g7" hreflang="en">G7</a></div> </div> <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-field-callout field--type-text-long field--label-hidden field__item"><h2>Data Updates</h2> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td>High-income country confirmed dose total:</td> <td>4.6 billion</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Upper-middle-income country total:</td> <td>1.3 billion</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Lower-middle-income country total:</td> <td>631 million</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Low-income country total:</td> <td>671 million</td> </tr> <tr> <td>COVAX total:</td> <td>1.12 billion</td> </tr> </tbody> <tfoot> <tr> <td>Total worldwide confirmed purchases of Covid-19 vaccines:</td> <td>8.25 billion doses</td> </tr> </tfoot> </table></div> Mon, 22 Feb 2021 22:46:17 +0000 j.harris 44 at https://launchandscalefaster.org